As he has throughout the pandemic, Saskatchewan’s Chief Medical Health Officer, Dr. Saqib Shahab returned to the press room at the Legislature on November 19 to present a graduated series of scenarios based on current modelling. As the province's COVID-19 cases have taken a pronounced spike in the last few weeks, Dr. Shahab submitted that Saskatchewan was experiencing its “first wave,” given the comparatively low numbers experienced over the summer. 

Shahab repeated the directive that the modelling doesn’t guarantee outcomes, but it uses predictive math to track trajectories in the four scenarios presented. The variables in each of those models are based on how the Saskatchewan population behaves over the next few weeks. The worst case presents a potential dire outcome.

“The worst case scenarios are still there even if we have low numbers,” cautioned Shahab. “It’s not that if we have low numbers you can say ‘we don’t have to do anything.’ Even with low numbers, we still have to model for the worst case scenario.”

Shahab’s “worst case” has only 20 percent of the province wearing masks and 50 percent persisting in large gatherings. Modelling suggests that could lead to a daily case count of 8,390 and a 6-month cumulative case count of nearly half a million.

The other more positive extreme targets 60 percent mask adoption by Saskatchewan residents and only 5 percent participating in group gatherings. With some additional efforts such as 50 percent of workers returning to home offices, the curve bends back to a mere 76 cases per day and fewer than 5,000 accumulated cases in the same 6 month time frame.

Shahab suggested that, to that extent, Saskatchewan’s fate is in its people’s hands and in their will to act in compliance with new masking and gathering orders.

Newly minted Health Minister Paul Merriman stated that the Saskatchewan Health Authority has added additional staff to handle contact tracing and call backs and that a new drive through testing centre for Prince Albert is coming online soon. The endgame, stated Merriman, would only be achieved with a safe and efficient vaccine. However the deployment of the vaccine involves a long term strategy requiring the continuation of Saskatchewan’s efforts in stopping the spread.

“Until then, we need to follow all public health measures and guidelines that will help keep us safe and those around us safe,” says Merriman.

The Ministry is continuing consultations with key players in the hospitality industry, in provincial recreation,and with faith groups to determine any next necessary steps for additional guidelines and health orders.